The next step is to turn to the future — to 2040.
That’s the world we have a laser-like focus on at Capricorn, since it’s the global emissions landscape we are on a mission to change.
This is our starting point for exploring the investments of the Technology Impact Fund and Technology Impact Growth Fund.
It's the landscape of global emissions where we are contributing new solutions to accelerate decarbonization.
Consider three themes within the TIF & TIGF portfolios:
Together, the technologies in the TIF & TIGF portfolios touch many parts of the global economy.
The technologies in TIF & TIGF's portfolio impact the 2040 Global Emissions Landscape by avoiding emissions that would otherwise occur.
Here, we show the largest potential avoided emissions, assuming that the technology scales to its maximum, transforming the market it targets.
Let's take Fervo's enhanced geothermal system (EGS) technology as an example, which avoids future emissions by replacing fossil fuel baseload power generation.
These avoided emissions ripple across the global economy.
Select any company in TIF & TIGF's portfolio to see how its technology is forecast to impact the Global Emissions Landscape.
Select a portfolio company to view its mapped node and potential avoided emissions in 2040A.
Taken together, the technologies across the TIF & TIGF portfolios have the potential to meaningfully reduce the world’s emissions trajectory by 2040.
The precise outcome will depend on how quickly these technologies scale, where they are deployed, and what they replace.
But the direction is clear: thoughtful investment can help turn climate innovation into real-world emissions reductions at global scale.
Thank you for joining us. We look forward to continuing that journey with you.
Acknowledgements and Citations
How the Emissions Map was Built
The framework
The map is built on the framework published in Bajzelj et al. (2013) and the sources compiled there. That work divides total annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, including energy, process, and land-use change emissions, into seven views of the same global total. Each is a lens on where those emissions come from: the final service being bought, the economic sector that delivers it, the equipment used, the powered device inside that equipment, the final form of energy, the fuel, and the gas released. Emissions from land follow a parallel chain, from service through sector to land use and land management. Flows connect the nodes in one lens to the nodes in an adjacent lens, showing, for example, how emissions from a sector are connected to particular equipment. The original data was compiled for 2010 from IEA fuel-combustion statistics and EDGAR v4.2, with the allocations between nodes derived by triangulation across industry, government, and academic sources.
The 2025 data update
The underlying data was updated to a present-day base year as part of this project. Energy emissions, process emissions, and agriculture, forestry and land-use change emissions were all updated from the sources cited below. Two nodes were added to represent computing: digital infrastructure equipment at the equipment level, and computing infrastructure, covering data centers, cryptocurrency, and AI, at the device level. An electric motor flow to cars and buses was added so that the electricity they use resolves to the grid rather than to a combustion engine. How emissions flow between the nodes of adjacent lenses was reviewed throughout rather than carried over: those flows were updated where newer data supported a different allocation, and retained where no better evidence existed. The result is a global total of approximately 54 Gt CO2e.
The 2040 projection
Projecting the map to 2040 uses the NGFS Phase 5 Scenarios Database under its Current Policies scenario, which carries forward only the climate policy legislated and in force today and assumes no new commitments beyond it. That is an assumption about policy rather than about technology: clean technology continues to be deployed and to improve at the pace current policies support. Sector emissions for 2025 and 2040 were obtained from the average across the three core integrated assessment models: GCAM 6.0, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 2.0-M-R12, and REMIND-MAgPIE 3.3-4.8. Each sector was then reduced to a 2025-to-2040 growth factor and applied to the corresponding sector node in the 2025 map. The 2040 map keeps the allocations established for 2025. The projected global total is 56.6 Gt CO2e.
Connections across the map
The underlying data describes connections between adjacent nodes, one lens to the next. It records how much flows from one node to the next, but not which onward connection any particular incoming flow feeds. The continuous flows shown in the Experience span all seven lenses, by assuming that each flow arriving at a node spreads across the connections leaving it in proportion to their size. Combinations that are not physically sensible, such as demand for illumination entering the residential sector and leaving through a hot water system, are ruled out at the sector lens.
References
- Bajzelj, B., Allwood, J. M., and Cullen, J. M. (2013). Designing Climate Change Mitigation Plans That Add Up. Environmental Science & Technology 47(14), 8062–8069. doi:10.1021/es400399h
- IEA datasets. GHG Emissions from Energy (2024); World Energy Statistics and Balances; World Energy Balances 2019 (doi:10.1787/3a876031-en); CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2019 (doi:10.1787/2a701673-en)
- IEA reports. World Energy Outlook 2024; Road Transport 2023; Electricity 2024; Energy and AI 2025
- IEA energy system topic pages and data charts. iea.org/topics, iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts
- EDGAR, Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, 2024 release. European Commission Joint Research Centre
- NGFS Phase 5 Scenarios Database, Current Policies scenario. GCAM 6.0, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 2.0-M-R12, and REMIND-MAgPIE 3.3-4.8, accessed through the IIASA Scenario Explorer
- IPCC (2021), Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I. GWP-100 characterization factors
- FAO, FAOSTAT. Emissions Totals; Forestry Production and Trade; Food Balances
- UNFCCC, Greenhouse Gas Inventory Database, Annex I
- USGS National Minerals Information Center, Aluminum and Lime statistics and information
- Pendrill, F. et al. (2019). Agricultural and forestry trade drives large share of tropical deforestation emissions. Global Environmental Change 56, 1–10. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.002
- Friedlingstein, P. et al. (2025). Global Carbon Budget 2024. Earth System Science Data 17, 965–1039. doi:10.5194/essd-17-965-2025
- Purohit, P. and Höglund-Isaksson, L. (2017). Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases 2005–2050 with abatement potentials and costs. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17, 2795–2816. doi:10.5194/acp-17-2795-2017
- International Fertilizer Association (2022). Fertilizer Use by Crop and Country for the 2017–2018 period
- European Solvents Industry Group (2017). Solvents and ESIG
- US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. National Household Travel Survey, 2022
- Eurostat, Air Transport Performance.
Disclaimers
About the Data and Modeling
The underlying emissions data, avoided-emissions estimates, and 2040 projections were developed using Koi, a forecasting platform built by Rho Impact, drawing on the systems modeling work of Bojana Bajzżelj, Julian Allwood, and Jonathan Cullen and incorporating updated public data sources. This information was provided to Capricorn Investment Group, LLC (“Capricorn”) by Rho Impact, and Capricorn has not independently verified, audited, or otherwise validated the accuracy, completeness, or methodology of the underlying data or modeling. Capricorn relies on Rho Impact as the source for this information and disclaims responsibility for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies contained in it.
Detailed model inputs, baseline assumptions, and sources for each technology referenced above are available in the accompanying Appendix, built on Koi, Rho Impact’s forecasting platform. The same reliance and no-independent verification disclosures set out above apply to that appendix.
Estimates of avoided emissions associated with portfolio companies in the Technology Impact Fund and Technology Growth Impact Fund are hypothetical and forward-looking. They assume that a given technology scales to its maximum potential and displaces a specific incumbent technology or process; actual outcomes will depend on the pace and location of deployment and may differ materially from what is shown. These estimates do not represent audited results, are not a measure of realized fund performance, and should not be relied on as such.
This experience is provided for informational and illustrative purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or fund interest. Prospective and current investors should refer to the applicable fund’s offering documents for complete information regarding the Technology Impact Fund and Technology Impact Growth Fund.
About the Appendix
The technology models in the Appendix were built and are maintained on Koi, a climate-impact forecasting platform developed by Rho Impact, an independent third party. Koi’s own validation process, referenced here as “fully validated,” reflects Rho Impact’s internal model review and does not constitute independent verification by Capricorn Investment Group, LLC (“Capricorn”). Capricorn has not audited the baseline assumptions, solution intensities, market-sizing inputs, or source data underlying these models and relies on Rho Impact for their accuracy and completeness.
The portfolio companies referenced in this Appendix have not reviewed, validated, or endorsed the models, assumptions, or figures attributed to them. Mapping a company to a model reflects Rho Impact’s assessment that the company’s technology falls within that model’s scope; it does not reflect the company’s own estimate of its emissions impact, and the company has not confirmed the accuracy of the baseline, solution, or market assumptions used. Company names and logos are used for identification purposes only and do not imply the company’s participation in, agreement with, or endorsement of this analysis.
Estimated emissions displacement is modeled at the technology level using assumptions about addressable market size, market capture, and per-unit displacement, rather than company-specific operational data. A company is mapped to a model because its technology falls within that model’s scope, not because Rho Impact or Capricorn has forecast that specific outcome for that company. Actual outcomes will depend on regulatory pathways, deployment timelines, capital availability, competitive dynamics, and other factors, and may differ materially from these estimates.
The Appendix is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation, and should be read together with the Disclosures related to the Sankey visualization.
Important Disclosures
Capricorn Investment Group, LLC (“Capricorn”) is registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Registration does not imply any level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. Nothing on this page constitutes an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or interest in any fund, including the Technology Impact Fund or the Technology Impact Growth Fund. Any such offer or solicitation will be made only through the applicable fund’s limited partnership agreement and other governing documents to qualified investors, and only in jurisdictions where permitted by law.
This page references specific portfolio companies for illustrative purposes. This is not a complete list of the fund’s investments, and it should not be assumed that any investment identified was or will be profitable, or that the technologies referenced will achieve the emissions reductions modeled. The referenced companies have not reviewed, validated, or endorsed the figures or models attributed to them, and their inclusion does not imply their participation in or agreement with this analysis. A complete list of the funds’ investments is available upon request.
Statements regarding future emissions, technology adoption, market scale, or climate outcomes are forward-looking and reflect assumptions as of September 2026 that are subject to significant uncertainty. Actual results may differ materially. Past or projected environmental impact is not indicative of future financial performance. For more information about Capricorn’s advisory business, services, and fees, please refer to our Form ADV and Form CRS available here or upon request.
Company and product names, logos, and trademarks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Their use does not imply endorsement of, or affiliation with, Capricorn beyond the investment relationship described. The information, data, and projections presented reflect assumptions and inputs as of September 2026 and are subject to change without notice. Capricorn undertakes no obligation to update this content to reflect subsequent events or developments.
Credits
This interactive experience was created by Capricorn Investment Group.
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